[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010049 
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-010145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST THU MAR 31 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL/SERN TX INTO WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 010049Z - 010145Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY TONIGHT ACROSS
SABINE RIVER INTO CNTRL LA. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

AS OF 0035Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG
ERN EDGE OF WW 115 OVER PANOLA/SHELBY COUNTIES IN FAR E-CNTRL
TX...AS WELL AS OVER ALLEN AND EVANGELINE PARISHES IN SWRN LA. 
COMPARISON OF 31/18Z AND 01/00Z LCH SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT /LARGELY VIA LOW-LEVEL
WAA/ HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST
PROFILE AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF CAP. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT SHOULD EXPEDITE NWD RETURN OF THIS
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH LA. WHEN COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. 

ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOSER TO 01/06Z AS
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NWD AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES.

..MEAD.. 04/01/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

31279429 32059412 33029398 33029298 32999214 30299231
30059425 30729432 

WWWW