[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 222054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222050 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-222315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX/OK PNHDLS...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 222050Z - 222315Z

STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM PARTS OF
ECNTRL NM ACROSS THE TX PNHDL...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE
OK PNHDL AND SWRN KS. AT THIS TIME...AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEAR LIMITED AND A WATCH IS NOT BEING
CONSIDERED.

SHARP AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE NWRN PART
OF THE TX PNHDL AND EXTENDS WWD INTO NERN NM. A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. A
DRYLINE/WINDSHIFT APPEARS TO BE MIXING EWD TOWARD ECNTRL NM. AIRMASS
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME UNSTABLE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S
CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND SBCAPE AS HIGH AS 2000
J/KG. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG UPPER
TROUGH...NOW ROTATING ACROSS CO/NRN NM...GRAZES THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE FROM PARTS OF NM ENEWD ACROSS TX.
BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INTO THE EVENING SHOULD BE
WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CVS TO AMA TO GAG. CELLS TRAVERSING
THIS CORRIDOR WILL EXPERIENCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR... INSTABILITY...AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING TO PRODUCE A FEW HAIL EVENTS. ACTIVITY MAY MERGE
INTO ONE OR TWO LINES ALONG AND/OR BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD  PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT.

..CARBIN.. 09/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

38039949 37309860 34750093 32590310 32950456 33270464
35040392 35740240 

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