[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201735 
SDZ000-NEZ000-201900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD AND NWRN/NCNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201735Z - 201900Z

PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL SD SWD INTO NWRN/NCNTRL NEB.  IT IS NOT
CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED ATTM.

MESOANALYSIS AND VSBL SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT IS
BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EWD...SITUATED KBIS-KPHP-KAIA AT 17Z. 
STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
WERE SUPPORTING A BAND OF TSTMS.  AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL
SD AND NCNTRL NEB HAD BECOME UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO
NEAR 80F AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...THOUGH VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE INHIBITING STRONG HEATING/
DESTABILIZATION.  

GIVEN STRONG LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND AT LEAST 1000 J/KG
MLCAPES...THE LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
MITIGATED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. IT
IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/HAIL.  PRIND THAT A WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED.  BUT...IF TSTMS
INCREASE MORE THAN EXPECTED...ONE MAY BE ISSUED.

..RACY.. 09/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

41970243 42800178 44370116 45350103 45319961 44299921
42969970 41600080 

WWWW