[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162052 
NCZ000-TNZ000-162215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NORTH CAROLINA EASTERN TENNESSEE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162052Z - 162215Z

NEW TORNADO WATCH...OR A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH...MAY BE REQUIRED
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO SHOULD TORNADO THREAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO
PARTS OF ERN TN AND WRN NC.

NWRN EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AXIS HAS DEVELOP INTO FAR WRN NC IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS...WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  SHEAR REMAINS
QUITE STRONG NWD INTO WRN NC AND ERN TN WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 30 KT NOW OBSERVED AS FAR NORTH AS MRX AT 2030Z.  WITH DISCRETE
STORMS ROTATING ENEWD ACROSS THE NERN GA/NWRN SC BORDER AREA...THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING NORTH OF
CURRENT TORNADO WATCHES.  PRIMARY NEGATIVE WILL BE PERSISTENT RAIN
AND RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER NOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. 
HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL SMALL TORNADO WATCH...OR A REPLACEMENT WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

..EVANS.. 09/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...

35088581 35688508 36008391 35968292 35348236 35008326 

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