[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161931 
SCZ000-GAZ000-162130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830...

VALID 161931Z - 162130Z

STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SC...BUT POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

AN E-W BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS CNTRL SC. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM
MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF STREAM CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD...AND BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE AREA OF GENERAL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN. GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR
THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS
MANAGE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 09/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

33527924 32418058 32078263 33008275 34348259 34938196
34467928 

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