[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161458 
SCZ000-GAZ000-161700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161458Z - 161700Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
PORTIONS OF ERN GA THROUGH SC INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WW MIGHT BE
NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

LATE THIS MORNING AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS SRN SC WWD
INTO E CNTRL GA. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF
STREAM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S IS ADVECTING NWWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING SURFACE HEATING WILL
LIKELY FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND SHEAR REMAIN WEST OF SC. DESPITE THIS...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IS ENHANCED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. AS IVAN CONTINUES IN A
GENERALLY NNEWD DIRECTION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER
THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN GA INTO PORTIONS OF SC. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED WHERE
STORMS INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.

..DIAL.. 09/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...

32478061 31468142 31868232 32798276 33968250 34638141
34567968 33597896 

WWWW