[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150116 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-150415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN NEWD INTO CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 150116Z - 150415Z

STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM W CENTRAL IA NEWD THRU SRN DOOR COUNTY IN NERN WI. 
ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SFC
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 1800
J/KG.  LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BEST
OVER WRN IA WITH 30-40 KT OF FLOW...WITH OUTER EDGES OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET /20-30 KT/ EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI.

ACTIVITY IS WORKING ALONG 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS NRN IA NEWD INTO NERN WI.  LATEST RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAK...MOIST TYPE LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM INDICATING MORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO TRAIN
ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  THERE IS SOME THREAT THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NERN IA...A SMALL PART OF SERN MN AND SRN
PARTS OF W CENTRAL WI NEXT FEW HOURS AS THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING.  A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME AS THE THREAT AREA AND TIME FRAME SEEM MINIMAL.

..MCCARTHY.. 09/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

43848862 43209079 42909224 43109294 43779297 44519162
44889028 44878780 

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