[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111959 
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-112200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...COLORADO VALLEY

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SVR POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN 

VALID 111959Z - 112200Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INCREASES...
BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...AND WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...CENTERED NEAR
THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER...HAS MAINTAINED INFLUX OF RELATIVELY
MOIST LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE COLORADO VALLEY.  IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG HEATING...THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH.

WHILE OROGRAPHY IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARY FORCING FOR
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SWATH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 
ONGOING ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE/BECOME INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR
REGIME...AS SURFACE HEATING BECOMES REDUCED AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
OVER INCREASINGLY BROAD AREA STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER.  GIVEN
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT WITH
SLOW MOVING STORMS

..KERR.. 09/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...

36291620 37111682 37791632 38661450 38581202 37271092
35751119 34751228 33981379 33311429 33211512 34221617
35551596