[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110357 
SDZ000-110600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110357Z - 110600Z

ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS CNTRL SD.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM THE RAPID CITY AREA
EXTENDING NEWD TO JUST WEST OF PIERRE SD. AN ONGOING SMALL MCS NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS CURRENTLY BEING SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER FAR NWRN SD. AS A RESULT...THE MCS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AFFECTING SCNTRL AND ECNTRL SD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG
COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT).
THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0
C/KM. ALTHOUGH NEW CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 09/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

44470100 44880040 44999903 44859793 44339745 43619757
43359887 43560031 43970098