[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061955 
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-062200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA/SC/NERN FL COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 805...806...

VALID 061955Z - 062200Z

IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
FEEDER BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR 45 E MCN/35 S SAV/40 NNE MLB. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER OUTER BAND NOW OVER GULF STREAM HAS DEVELOPED IN
AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG /. VELOCITY
IMAGERY FROM THE MELBOURNE RADAR SHOWS ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE
DISCRETE CELLS...SO THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR WATERSPOUTS
AND EVENTUALLY MAY MOVE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF SC.

IN THE SHORT TERM...BACKED/SELY FLOW AS NOTED IN SFC OBS OFF THE
FL/SE GA COASTS...WILL ONLY INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES. RECENT VAD WIND
DATA FROM THE RADARS IN JACKSONVILLE FL AND VALDESTA GA SUGGEST
35-50 KT OF LOW LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR...WITH FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
FOR TORNADOES. SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS...AND THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS
PERHAPS HIGHER TODAY THAN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS GIVEN FAVORABLE
STORM/COAST ORIENTATION.

..TAYLOR.. 09/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MLB...JAX...FFC...TAE...

28518033 28778155 29058201 30298311 31248359 32468347
33248280 33318104 33167943 30867962 29327969 

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