[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041116 
FLZ000-041245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 AM CDT SAT SEP 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/LOWER ERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041116Z - 041245Z

IN ADDITION TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH LANDFALLING CONVECTIVE BANDS.

LATEST MELBOURNE/MIAMI RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED RAINBAND
WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA
COUNTIES SSWWD ACROSS ERN GLADES COUNTY. LOCAL VWPS INDICATE NNELY
WINDS INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANTLY ATOP SHALLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH
1KM SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2. THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES AOB 200
J/KG/. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS AIRMASS SLOWLY
DESTABILIZES...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH ANY CELLS
MOVING ONSHORE.

ADDITIONALLY...INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW
VALUES OF 2.30-2.40 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 5-5.5 KFT SHOULD
ENHANCE RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH LANDFALLING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 2-2.5 INCHES.

..MEAD.. 09/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

27557985 26397986 26058042 26288096 27508126 28798080
28688011 

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