[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300214 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-300245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871...

VALID 300214Z - 300245Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH TIME ACROSS WW AS AIRMASS
SLOWLY STABILIZES.  THOUGH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST
LOCALLY BEYOND THE 30/03Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 871...NEW WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD AT 25 KT ACROSS MO
ATTM...EXTENDING FROM 40 NNW IRK SSWWD TO 20 NE CNU.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW ATTM...THOUGH
STORMS HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL TENDENCY TO BECOME WEAKER / MORE
DISORGANIZED WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY
STABILIZE.

NONETHELESS...MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINING AROUND 500 J/KG AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LOCAL SEVERE THREAT
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  THOUGH A LIMITED THREAT MAY
CONTINUE BEYOND THE EXPIRATION OF WW 871...WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

..GOSS.. 10/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

37129404 39339320 40649220 40639136 37119313 

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