[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300131 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK / SWRN MO / WRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 872...

VALID 300131Z - 300300Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF WW ATTM.

TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING ACROSS WW AS STORMS
ARE BECOMING MORE LINEARLY ORIENTED WITH TIME. IN
ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY COOL / STABILIZE
ACROSS ERN OK AND INTO SWRN MO / WRN AR...WHICH SEEMS TO BE RELATED
TO A SLOW DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS PER LATEST
RADAR LOOPS.  EVENING RAOBS FROM BOTH LIT AND SGF SUGGEST THAT A FEW
DEGREES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING COMBINED WITH THE OBSERVED WEAK
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITH TIME OF
ONGOING CONVECTION. 

NONETHELESS...STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION
AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS ALONG WITH
FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE SUGGEST THAT A
SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..GOSS.. 10/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

37089402 37059321 33919442 33959643 34619623 36389497 

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