[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300005 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-300130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MO / SERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 871...

VALID 300005Z - 300130Z

SEVERE / TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES WITHIN BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS MO AND FAR SERN KS.

RADAR LOOP SHOWS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ALONG DRYLINE / AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT FROM SRN IA / N CENTRAL MO SSWWD INTO FAR SERN KS / ERN OK. 
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS REMAINS MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...WITH 50O TO 100 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. 
MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THIS
REGION...WITH EAX /PLEASANT HILL MO/ WSR-88D VWP AND LATHROP MO
PROFILER INDICATING 40 TO 50 KT SSWLY FLOW AT 1 KM INCREASING TO
SWLY AT 70 KT AT 4 KM.

THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL
SUPERCELL STORMS WITHIN BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE...AND SEVERE THREAT
-- INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES -- IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GOSS.. 10/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...ICT...

40619371 40599142 36999325 37139532 

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