[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 292316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292316 
ILZ000-MOZ000-300115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292316Z - 300115Z

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL IL. CELLS WILL TRACK RATHER QUICKLY
NEWD AT 35-40KT...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM
BMI SWWD TO JUST WEST AND NW OF STL. CELLS HAVE FORMED IN BROAD
REGION OF DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW...WELL REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE CYCLONE AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH NERN
EXTENT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD BAND WHICH EXTENDS FROM SRN AR NEWD INTO
W-CENTRAL IL. LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK. DESPITE ABSENCE
OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
ADDITIONALLY...ILX VAD INDICATES 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45KT...SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS. GIVEN FAVORABLE PARAMETERS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL
COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER LATE THIS EVENING LESSENS INSTABILITY. THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IL SHOULD WEAKEN...WHILE UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY TIED TO STRONG FORCING ACROSS IA AND MO TRACKS EWD TOWARD
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

..BANACOS.. 10/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

39919114 41428897 41598850 41418791 40758766 40258763
39848789 39088854 38598958 38488997 38619002 38839013
39159055 

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