[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232152 
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-232345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232152Z - 232345Z

THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF
NRN MS. EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION OF THE THREAT SUGGEST A WW WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY.

CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CONTINUES IN
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS NRN MS. SOME INTENSIFICATION
OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS THE INFLOW LAYER DESTABILIZED.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOB 6 C/KM AND AREAS OF CLOUDS HAVE
LIMITED OVERALL DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 700
J/KG. STRONG ROTATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED WITH A COUPLE OF
THESE STORMS. GIVEN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ON THE ORDER OF
200-250 M2/S2 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KT...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO BEFORE SURFACE HEATING
DIMINISHES AND ACTIVITY BEGINS TO MOVE EWD TOWARD A MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

..DIAL.. 10/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

32979122 34778908 34598807 33418839 32309111 

WWWW