[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232149 
INZ000-ILZ000-232345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ECENTRAL IL AND WCENTRAL/ SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232149Z - 232345Z

SCT TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN DECREASING THREAT
AFTER 00Z. LIMITED MAGNITUDE AND DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE A WW.

STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN/ERN
IL AND MINIMAL CINH FROM FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. LEADING EDGE OF MODEST MID LEVEL
COOLING AHEAD OF ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES TO BETWEEN 6.5-7 DEG C/KM OVER WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY
AXIS AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND
DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MUCAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
DIMINISHES INSTABILITY. OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR DUE TO VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER SVR THREAT OVER THE AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 10/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

38078890 38528931 38778924 39648828 39988799 40368733
40218704 39758683 38848706 38298780 

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