[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200224 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-200430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0924 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS AND AL...FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 868...

VALID 200224Z - 200430Z

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE WW 868 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.

BROADER SCALE MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...AND AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS TAKEN ON
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...AND BEGUN A GRADUAL IN DECREASE STRENGTH...WITH LOW-LEVEL
JET NOW AT OR BELOW 25 KT.  GIVEN WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...WEAK MID-LEVEL WARMING AND FURTHER SURFACE
COOLING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  DECREASE IN INTENSITY
ALREADY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW
TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

..KERR.. 10/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

34508853 33788835 33098736 31788528 31028410 30298387
29858504 30328628 30758738 31738852 32648923 33508952
34458964 34828930 

WWWW