[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192248 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-200045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MS AND AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 866...867...

VALID 192248Z - 200045Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WWS.  NEW WW REPLACING 866 AND
867 LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED BY 20/00Z.

SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY...BUT THIS IS
OCCURRING WELL UPSTREAM...FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE TEXAS
PLAINS.  THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING...BEFORE WARMING ALOFT BEGINS TO SUPPRESS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

IMPULSE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE
ARKLATEX REGION...WILL BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS AS
UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS  CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI NEAR/EAST OF JACKSON BY THE 20/00-03Z TIME FRAME.

WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.  THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ...WILL
EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO REDUCE TORNADO POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...  WEST
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 50 KTS
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.

FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...RISK OF TORNADOES WILL PERSIST
IN STRONGEST CONVECTION...INCLUDING NEWEST CONVECTION NOW TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON.

..KERR.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

32978948 32918834 32308630 31468527 30748569 30858682
31248801 31298867 31598963 31869033 32129058 32759023 

WWWW