[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182221 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-190015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX...SRN AR...EXTREME NRN LA...NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182221Z - 190015Z

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING WITHIN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AXIS.  VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO PASSAGE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...HOWEVER...VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
BACKING ONCE AGAIN AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET APPROACHES.

SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  VWPS INDICATE 0-1 SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 ACROSS THE
AREA.  LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS FURTHER INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
WITH ANY STRONG / SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

ETA MODEL PRODUCES PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 00-03Z.  ALTHOUGH OVERALL
VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE WEAK...DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES
ABOVE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING EWD INTO NRN MS OVERNIGHT.

..JEWELL.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

34869217 34808947 33398919 32938990 32419399 32659470
33419458 33789398 34849271 

WWWW