[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182041 
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 856...

VALID 182041Z - 182215Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF WW
AREA. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG
WARM FRONT FROM 40 SW OF STL TO APPROXIMATELY 30 SSE BLV THROUGH
22-23Z.

A RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST HOUR FROM GASCONADE/FRANKLIN COUNTIES SWD ACROSS DENT AND
SHANNON COUNTIES. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR TRIPLE POINT OF SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CIN.
THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS HAVE VEERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...THE PRESENCE OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.

IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH
THOSE STORMS THAT CAN INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH WARM FRONT FROM SW OF
STL TO SE OF BVL. HERE...MODIFICATION OF CURRENT STL VWP FOR SURFACE
WIND OBSERVATIONS INVOF WARM FRONT YIELDS 0-1 KM SHEAR/SRH OF 20
KTS/200 M2/S2...RESPECTIVELY.

..MEAD.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...

38819285 38728922 36548923 36649289 

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