[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281649 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-282245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB...NERN CO AND NWRN KS

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 281649Z - 282245Z

LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE TO MDT-HVY SNOW IN
THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS NERN CO/NWRN KS AND FAR SWRN NEB. HRLY
SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. 

MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED FOR P-TYPE TO BE -FZDZ ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN CO/NWRN KS. THIS WILL CHANGE AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY. SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER
TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MDT-HVY SNOW ACROSS SWRN NEB...NERN CO
AND NWRN KS BEGINNING BETWEEN 21-00Z. STRONG UPPER JET LOCATED OVER
NEB WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED FAVORING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER ERN
CO/NWRN KS. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CO REDEVELOPS
SEWD INTO SWRN KS...THIS WILL AID IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS ECENTRAL CO/SWRN KS. MDT BACKING OF MID LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THIS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT
INCREASED VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEPENING OF FRONTOGENESIS INTO THE
800-700 MB LAYER. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FORCING IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER WHERE
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...BUT
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT HRLY RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING.

..CROSBIE.. 11/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

39710424 40560353 40640162 40060072 39140130 38800218
38820372 

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