[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281644
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281644 
NEZ000-COZ000-282245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 281644Z - 282245Z

A BAND OF HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NEB THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR MDT-HVY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SWWD INTO FAR NWRN KS AND NERN CO TOWARDS 00Z...WITH THE HVY SNOW
BAND LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NEB THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED NARROW BAND /10-20 MILES WIDE/
OF MDT-HVY SNOW ALONG AN AXIS FROM SDY TO 10 N OF LBF TO HSI. A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S WILL SUPPORT HIGH SNOW/WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS AROUND 15:1.
THIS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO ACT TO SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF A VERY FOCUSED BAND OF HVY SNOW...WITH A STRONG
GRADIENT OF VISIBILITIES/SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN A FEW MILE DISTANCE
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND. THIS BAND OF MDT-HVY SNOW MATCHES UP
WELL WITH STRONG MID LEVEL WAA SUPPORTED BY 50 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE 3
KM LAYER EVIDENT ON REGIONAL PROFILER DATA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX CENTERED OVER NEB AND MID LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ZONE IN THE 600-650 MB LAYER WHERE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT RAPID DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. GIVEN
SLOW SEWD MOTION OF UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND EWD
MOVEMENT OF LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DRY SLOT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE MID LEVEL FORCING/HVY
SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS AREAS
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/WRN NEB SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING TREND
IN HVY SNOW IN THE 17-20Z TIME FRAME.

..CROSBIE.. 11/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

41270360 42180357 41969974 41389664 40219615 40319745
40830260 

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