[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250103 
MIZ000-INZ000-250400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN IN INTO SRN/CNTRL LOWER MI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 250103Z - 250400Z

OCCASIONALLY MDT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS FAR NRN IN/SRN HALF OF LOWER MI...HOWEVER DIMINISHING TREND
EXPECTED FROM SW TO NE AFTER 03Z.

MDT/HEAVY WET SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS NW IN/SRN LOWER MI INTO
EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY IN BEH-GRR-LAN-MBS CORRIDOR. THIS SW-NE
FOCUSED SNOWFALL IS LARGELY ORIENTED WITH MID LEVEL /800MB-600MB/
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN NW PERIPHERY OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONE...
AMIDST RELATIVELY LOW STATIC STABILITY /IE. 00Z DTX RAOB/.
HOWEVER...AS EVIDENCE IN IR SATELLITE/RADAR MOSAIC
TRENDS...DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

18Z/21Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERALL DECREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO NEWD
TRANSITION OF COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE/DIMINISHING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT. THUS...WHILE OCCASIONALLY MDT SNOW WILL
PERSIST IN SHORT TERM...DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED REMAINDER OF
EVENING...NAMELY AFTER 03Z.

..GUYER.. 11/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

43198608 43998478 44448347 43908331 43768296 43578257
42448365 41218571 40998617 41178656 41498678 41768649
42498631 

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