[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242336 
GAZ000-FLZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 904...

VALID 242336Z - 250000Z

TORNADO WATCH 904 EXPIRES AT 00Z AND THERE IS NO PLAN TO EXTEND THE
WATCH IN TIME OR SPACE.

A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF SERN GA AND NRN FL.  STRONGER TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED
TO THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RAIN SHIELD...AND MAINLY OFFSHORE OF
LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES.  THESE TSTMS APPEAR TO BE FEEDING OFF UNSTABLE
MARINE PARCELS...BUT A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE SINCE
23Z.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOLING AND THE FACT
THAT A RELATIVELY STABLE LAYER EXISTS JUST ABOVE H7...UPDRAFTS WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME LASTING A SUBSTANTIAL LENGTH OF TIME. 
ALSO...GIVEN THAT THE MAIN LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE PASSING WELL
N OF THE REGION...UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING.

THUS...DESPITE A SHORT TERM LOW PROBABILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE VCNTY CITRUS/LEVY COUNTIES...IT
APPEARS THE SEVERE THREATS ARE WANING RAPIDLY.

..RACY.. 11/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29078335 31788162 29038197 28668264 

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