[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242130 
GAZ000-FLZ000-242330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN GA...EXTREME N-CENTRAL/NWRN FL
PENINSULA...W-CENTRAL/NW FL COAST

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 904...

VALID 242130Z - 242330Z

TWO CONVECTIVE LINES OF CONCERN:
1. EXTENDING FROM S-CENTRAL GA SWD ACROSS ERN APALACHEE BAY THEN
SWWD ACROSS GULF...AND
2. RELATIVELY NEW BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR CTY SSWWD
OFFSHORE W-CENTRAL FL COAST...AS OF 2115Z.  WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WW...ALTHOUGH SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
LIMITED ALONG W-CENTRAL/NW FL COAST.

WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FIRST LINE AS
IT MOVES EWD THROUGH REMAINDER EXTREME ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NWRN
FL...MERGING WITH SECOND LINE NEAR CTY.  VWP AND RUC SOUNDING DATA
INDICATE KINEMATIC PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER NWRN FL WITH 40-50
KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURE. AIRMASS WILL
 LOSE BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NRN FL...BECAUSE OF
COMBINATION OF SFC DIABATIC HEAT LOSS AND MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYER
NOTED IN 18Z JAX RAOB. THEREFORE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY
NEARS ERN EDGE OF WW...AND ANOTHER WW FARTHER E MAY NOT BE
NECESSARY.

SECOND BAND OF CONVECTION BREAKS INTO DISCRETE STORMS -- INCLUDING
SOME POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS -- OVER GULF. EXPECT TSTMS TO MOVE ONSHORE
AROUND 23Z-00Z N OF PIE...AND AFTER 00Z FARTHER S.  FOREGOING AIR
MASS OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH SFC DEW
POINTS IN UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...HOWEVER THETAE WILL DIMINISH WITH
INLAND EXTENT AND WITH TIME.  PRIND SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES BUT NOT VERY FAR INLAND.

..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...

31778368 31758162 29028280 28998477 

29528254 29278235 28868223 28418224 27788260 27608281
27728303 28158311 28988283 

WWWW