[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240131 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO NW OK/SW KS

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 240131Z - 240630Z

BAND OF MDT SNOW WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 1 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
APPROX 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX PANHANDLES...NAMELY FROM AMA
N/NE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT/MDT SNOW
BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS NW OK/SW IN AREAS ALONG AND NW OF A GAG-P28
LINE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS CORE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
NW TX...WITH LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN
FROM NW TX INTO NW OK/SRN KS IN NW QUADRANT OF LOW. IN
ADDITION...18Z/21Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING UPPER DIV
ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS REMAINDER OF EVENING OWING TO
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE.

GIVEN OVERALL DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH /AS EVIDENT IN 00Z AMA
RAOB/...CORRESPONDING BAND OF MDT SNOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/ERN OK PANHANDLE IN GUY-PYX-BGD-AMA CORRIDOR
THROUGH APPROX 03Z. SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1 IN/HR WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.

FURTHER NE ACROSS NW OK/SRN KS...PRECIP GENERALLY REMAINS IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH SHALLOW
WARM LAYER PERSISTING WITH 01Z SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE ORIENTED NE-SW
FROM PTT TO NEAR PYX. HOWEVER SHORT TERM TRENDS/P-TYPE ALGORITHMS
SUGGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING WILL SUPPORT A CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT/MDT SNOW BETWEEN 03Z-06Z ACROSS FAR NW OK INTO SRN KS.

..GUYER.. 11/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

36380213 37250085 37939951 37399876 36189979 35330120
35380199 35790226 

WWWW