[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231815 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE NM AND OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 231815Z - 232315Z

MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD OUT OF NE
NM INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THROUGH REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD
ACROSS FAR SE NM. IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...LOW TO MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUES TO PIVOT/TIGHTEN
FROM NE NM/NW TX INTO NW OK/SRN KS...WHILE ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

IN RESPONSE...SFC TEMPS ACROSS WRN OK PANHANDLE/NW TX PANHANDLE
CONTINUE TO COOL AT RATE OF 1-2 DEG F/HR...WITH 18Z SFC WET BULB
ZERO LINE ORIENTED SW-NE FROM BETWEEN CAO/DHT TO JUST S/E OF EHA.
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST CHANGE OVER TO
MDT/OCNLY HEAVY WET SNOW INITIALLY ACROSS CIMARRON CO OK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING S/E INTO AREAS NW OF AMA BY THE 21Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME. IN THESE AREAS...RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
/E.G. SEEDER-FEEDER/ SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SATURATION IN DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER...SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER.

ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENTLY WARM TEMPS WILL SUPPORT RA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...EVENTUAL
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW/MID LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION/DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CHANGE P-TYPE OVER
TO SN FROM BEAVER CO OK INTO THE AMA-PYX-PPA VICINITIES AFTER 00Z.

..GUYER.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

36650339 36970225 37060133 36910097 36500086 36200083
35560087 35180183 35070305 35340348 36220368