[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231816 
TXZ000-232045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231816Z - 232045Z

TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS OVER
PECOS VALLEY AND SERN PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS OF W TX.  ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FROM JUST S ABI TOWARD SCHLEICHER COUNTY
THROUGH 20Z.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT WILL MONITOR AREAS
W OF WW 883 AROUND HILL COUNTRY...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE THAN FARTHER W.

AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF W TX HAS DRIED SUBSTANTIALLY IN LOW-MIDDLE
LEVELS -- ESPECIALLY ABOVE SFC.  THIS TREND SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO
MORE OF HILL COUNTRY AREA OF CENTRAL TX NEXT FEW HOURS.  EXPECT
RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHEN CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING IS USED TO MODIFY
SOUNDING PROFILE.  EFFECTS OF SFC HEATING AND STRONG MIDLEVEL
DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD OFFSET LOW LEVEL CAA ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WEAK
MLCAPES -- WELL BELOW 500 J/KG -- W OF SJT-DRT LINE.  MODIFIED ETA
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH DEEPER BUOYANT LAYER OVER HILL COUNTRY AND E
OF ABI...BUT STILL WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG.  VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE LIMITED AREA WIDE BY STRONG WLY COMPONENT TO
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  HOWEVER -- GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR
AND COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER -- LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE TSTMS.

..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30660336 31470317 31870170 31929922 31999753 31389776
30529865 30150245 

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