[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310021 
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-310145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OH...ERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 335...

VALID 310021Z - 310145Z

THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A
REPLACEMENT WW APPEARS LIKELY.

SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH 200-250
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH INDICATED ON AREA VWPS.  LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES
AIR OVER OH IS BECOMING MORE STABLE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DUE
TO COOLING OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER...SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE
UNSTABLE FEED AND POCKETS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP...THEREBY INCREASING THE THREAT OF TORNADOES.

MAIN FORCING MECHANISM THUS FAR HAS BEEN LIFT ALONG WARM FRONT. 
LIFT FROM COOLING ALOFT / HEIGHT FALLS WITH APPROACHING
WAVE...REFLECTED / FALL COUPLET OVER IL/IN...WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
UVVS ONCE AGAIN...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR
WARM FRONT / OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  

MCS OVER NRN OHIO IS STABILIZING THE AIR MASS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT MOVES SEWD ALONG AND N OF WARM
FRONT...INGESTING UNSTABLE AIR WITHIN SWLY LOW LEVEL JET.

..JEWELL.. 05/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

39188229 38348258 37318304 37128390 37328538 38228534
39408489 40808486 40978195 

WWWW