[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 310018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310018 
MIZ000-WIZ000-310145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 310018Z - 310145Z

...INCREASING THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MI...

EARLIER MCS HAS SURGED WELL SOUTHEAST OF LOWER MI.  THIS ACTIVITY
HAS FORCED A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NRN IND THAT APPEARS
RELUCTANT TO LIFT NWD IN THE SHORT TERM.  LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR ISENTROPICALLY-FORCED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OBSERVED...AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED...LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
ISOLATED STORMS THAT LIFT/DEVELOP NEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WW AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 05/31/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...MKX...

44538816 44378592 42438371 42188617 43348759 

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