[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 290032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290031 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL / SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA...SWRN
MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319...

VALID 290031Z - 290200Z

SLOW MOVING SUPERCELL STORMS OVER SERN SD AND NERN NEB CONTINUE AS
LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES MOIST INFLOW.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT AS OPPOSED TO A HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS THEY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINATE.

FURTHER W...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER CENTRAL AND WRN SD WITH
SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...QUALITY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS POOR ON RAPID CITY SOUNDING WHERE A MIXED
LAYER PARCEL YIELDS SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION.  ABERDEEN SOUNDING SHOWS
 HIGHER MIXING RATIOS AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS.  THUS...ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO
HIGHER DEWPOINT AXIS PROVIDED BY SLY LOW LEVEL JET.

..JEWELL.. 05/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

41479491 41459940 44870058 44879585 

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