[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280208 
MOZ000-280345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 280208Z - 280345Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT IS POSSIBLE WITH INTENSIFYING LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SWRN MO. OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT AND SHORT DURATION
OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR A WW.

LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN MO ALONG
OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER NWRN MO.
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
DUE TO STRONG INHIBITION LAYER NOTED ON THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING. THE
00Z SGF SOUNDING WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO DEPARTURE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER IL/IND WILL
LIMIT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

36669328 36879398 37729392 38029328 37919171 37869140
36799126 

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