[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280101 
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-280230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PNHDL...CNTRL MD AND CNTRL/NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 280101Z - 280230Z

TSTMS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND OR LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS EVENING.  A
WW MAY BE NEEDED IF INTENSITY INCREASES...OR...IF UPSTREAM OH VLY
ACTIVITY SURVIVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

00Z BLACKSBURG AND WALLOPS ISLAND SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. 
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DOES EXIST TO SUPPORT RECENTLY DEVELOPED
TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  MOREOVER...TSTMS UPSTREAM ACROSS
WRN WV WILL BE MOVING EWD TOWARD THE ERN WV PNHDL INTO WRN VA BY
0200 UTC.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG OVER THE REGION AND
ANY TSTM WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO ORGANIZE INTO ROTATING TSTMS. 
THE ONLY NEGATIVE IS THE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE REGIME NOTED ACROSS
THE REGION.  

CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED STORMS IS NOT HIGH EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT IF STORMS DO SHOW AN UPSWING IN INTENSITY...A WW
WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 315.

..RACY.. 05/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

39567958 39487733 38897692 37937715 37587851 37807966 

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