[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280012 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO EWD INTO WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 310...312...

VALID 280012Z - 280145Z

ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...AND
A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  THIS WATCH WILL REPLACE WW
310 AND 312.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF E-W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION...ALONG WITH UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WITH WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORCE NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND
POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF BOUNDARY.

AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE 0-1 SRH VALUES APPROACHING 200
M2/S2 OVER SERN MO EWD INTO KY.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE
OUTFLOW HAS NOT UNDERCUT UPDRAFT.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT AS WELL.

..JEWELL.. 05/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

36559222 37499300 38479323 38669198 38899064 38798951
38848859 38758732 38338542 36668540 36458762 

WWWW