[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272224 
IDZ000-280030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272224Z - 280030Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN ID THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS SRN ID IN REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500
J/KG COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55 KT...MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL
TRACK GENERALLY ENEWD AT 25-30 KT. ROTATING UPDRAFTS MAY CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL WHILE POSSIBLE SMALL-SCALE BOW SEGMENTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED...HOWEVER...THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A WW.

..BANACOS.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...

42441582 42931616 43311615 43591543 43861445 43701362
43281312 42731295 42421318 42241360 42311548 

WWWW