[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272201 
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MO AND SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309...

VALID 272201Z - 272330Z

DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/
SERN MO INTO SRN IL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

RADAR LOOPS SHOW THAT A NEARLY SOLID LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
KANSAS CITY EWD TO NORTH OF ST. LOUIS. A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW HAS
FORMED NEAR ST. LOUIS AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO PIVOT ABOUT AN
AXIS.  STORMS EAST OF THE LOW ARE DEVELOPING ENEWD WHILE WEST OF THE
LOW...TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE SEWD.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE TSTMS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES NEAR 3500 J/KG.  AS THE COLD POOL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
BENEATH THESE TSTMS...THE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW WILL SURGE SEWD INTO
THIS AIR MASS...LIKELY DRIVING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A BOW ECHO MAY BEGIN FORMING AND MOVE ESEWD INTO
CNTRL/SERN MO AND SRN IL GIVING DAMAGING WINDS. 

AS THE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD...AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED
JUST SOUTH OF WW 309.

..RACY.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

38148894 37368916 37509251 38849490 40169480 39378901 

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