[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272018 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT AND THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272018Z - 272215Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THREAT OF
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY SURFACE
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN SD NWWD INTO THE NERN CORNER OF MT. IN
DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
7.5-8.0 C/KM AND 500MB TEMPERATURE AROUND -18C ACROSS THE WRN
DAKOTAS AND FAR ERN MT...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG. LOW WBZ HEIGHTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES AS CELLS SPREAD ESEWD AT 25-30 KT. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35F SUGGEST LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IN
CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

ACTIVITY IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEP LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

46860458 49010591 48900399 45169980 43219857 43080057
43300280 43930317 

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