[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271110 
TXZ000-NMZ000-271345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX/NM AND
PECOS/CONCHO VALLEYS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271110Z - 271345Z

POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS -- SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
-- IS INCREASING THIS MORNING OVER PECOS VALLEY/PERMIAN BASIN
REGIONS NWD ONTO SRN HIGH PLAINS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM NEAR BREWSTER/PRESIDIO COUNTY
LINE IN TX NWD TO TX/NM BORDER NW INK...THEN NEWD ACROSS SERN CORNER
OF NM...NEWD PAST LBB AND ACROSS WRN OK.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...WHILE AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF
DRYLINE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS.  FCST SOUNDINGS FROM
RUC/ETA -- BOTH OF WHICH INDICATE GREATLY INCREASING CONVECTIVE
PRECIP THIS REGION AFTER 12Z -- SHOW DECREASING CINH WHILE
MAINTAINING FAVORABLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY -- I.E. MUCAPE 1500-2000
J/KG ROOTED NEAR 800 MB LEVEL. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS FCST TO
INCREASE OVER THIS AREA IN FORM OF LOW LEVEL WAA AT FIRST.  THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MIDMORNING WITH INCREASING DPVA ALOFT AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES AND MID-UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER SRN AZ/NRN
SONORA APCHS.  DESTABILIZATION ALOFT IS EVIDENT IN TSTMS NOW
DETECTED FROM ELP AREA SWWD ACROSS NWRN CHIHUAHUA...AND SHOULD SHIFT
EWD TOWARD MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. MEANWHILE...EXPECT AT LEAST 60 KT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR
WITHIN FIRST 6 KM OF BUOYANT LAYER...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY ROTATING STORMS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

30420254 31290354 32160326 33660211 34040169 33680118
32910048 30930006 30370053 30240104 30250172 

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