[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252203 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN MO SRN IL SWRN IN WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 288...

VALID 252203Z - 252330Z

MCS COMPOSED OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND EVOLVING BOW ECHOES
CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SERN MO/SRN IL.  SUPERCELLS WITH LOW
LEVEL ROTATION HAVE PERSISTED ALONG LEADING COLD FRONT NOW MOVING
INTO E-CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL...WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALL MAXIMUM
IS NOW LOCATED.  LOCAL BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THIS LOW
CENTER WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO.  HOWEVER...OVERALL UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE PARALLEL TO E-W
ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY FAVORS
EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE BOW ECHO SYSTEMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD AND FEED OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SOUTH OF E-W FRONT.

FARTHER WEST ALONG AND NORTH OF COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MO...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND MAIN FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHIFTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER
ALONG SWLY H85 JET.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A THREAT LARGE
HAIL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS THEY FEED OFF OF 1000-1500 J/KG
MUCAPE.

..EVANS.. 05/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36439208 38549275 39188700 37628702 

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