[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242057 
KSZ000-OKZ000-242230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242057Z - 242230Z

TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ALONG DRYLINE. A WW IS
CURRENTLY BEING ISSUED FOR N-CNTRL OK AND AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY OVER S-CNTRL KS.

AS OF 2045Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING FROM
GRANT/KAY COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL OK NEWD INTO SUMNER COUNTY IN S-CNTRL
KS. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-3500
J/KG AND DECREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MOREOVER...REGIONAL
PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE 50-60KT MID-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS N-CNTRL
OK/S-CNTRL KS WHICH IS RESULTING IN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55KTS.
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL. STRONGLY MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY-LAYER AND LARGER
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED
WHICH SHOULD HINDER TORNADO THREAT.

A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR N-CNTRL OK AND AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY OVER S-CNTRL KS WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

..MEAD.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36589812 37189803 38009748 38059654 37839603 36309700 

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