[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241900 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NY...ERN PA..NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 271...274...

VALID 241900Z - 242030Z

WE MAY REPLACE WW 271 AND 274 WITH A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ACROSS THE AREA BY 20Z.

RADAR SHOWS INCREASE COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF N
CENTRAL NY STATE AND CENTRAL PA.  ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY MID
LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE MOVING THRU WRN NY AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OF 60-70 KT ACROSS SWRN PA.  AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG. 
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL
PA WITH 50 KT ABOVE 600 MB.  STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

40317403 40307469 40377600 40687682 41597651 42647643
43207649 43667599 43707490 42717394 41737386 40507391 

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