[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241854 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...NWRN TN...WRN KY...EXTREME SRN
IL / IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241854Z - 242030Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM SERN MO EWD INTO
WRN KY.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. WW NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU ALONG WARM FRONT..WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY
 EXISTS.  WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
BUT ARE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM PER AREA VWPS.  

APPROACHING MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL TO FORM.  OVERALL
MASS FIELDS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE HOWEVER FOR LARGE SCALE INITIATION
DUE TO DEEPENING LOW TO THE NW.  THEREFORE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

35998976 35989074 36539139 37369105 37829009 37938632
37618596 36688581 36188746 

WWWW