[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232350 
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-240115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT / WRN SD NERN WY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 265...

VALID 232350Z - 240115Z

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE 30S
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE IT IS UNCAPPED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F.  THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY HAS NOT
WARMED MUCH AND HAS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 

LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL AND WIND...BUT
TORNADOES APPEAR LESS LIKELY NOW AS LCLS WILL BE TOO HIGH ON WARM
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...AND CIN WILL BE TOO GREAT ON THE COOL SIDE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A CONTINUATION OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE
FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE.

..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

43630168 42680209 42380344 42680514 42940622 44250664
45580580 46340538 45890292 

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