[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232330 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-240130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...ERN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264...

VALID 232330Z - 240130Z

COMPLEX MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REVEALS PRIMARY
SURFACE CYLONE WAS SITAUTED ACROSS SRN WI WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTAL WAVES EXIST ALONG STRONGLY CURVED AND SEGMENTED WARM FRONT
FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE MI...ACROSS SCNTRL MI...TO THE ST.
CLAIR RIVER/WRN LAKE ERIE. TSTM COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN LOWER
MI APPEARS LINKED TO FRONTAL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS THE THUMB AREA.
A FEW SUPERCELLS STORMS HAVE BEEN CO-LOCATED WITH THIS IMPLULSE.
FARTHER WEST...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND HEAVY RAIN HAVE STABILIZED
THE AIRMASSS OVER SRN LOWER MI BUT SLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD FO THE MAIN LOW WERE RESULTING IN AIRMASS RECOVERY FROM NERN
IL ACROSS NRN IND. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST LATER THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG CELLS HAVE ERUPTED OFF THE WARM FRONT AND
MOVED OVER CNTRL LAKE MI OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTVITY WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS AREAS OF NRN LOWER MI...NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 05/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

41958811 43378263 41508264 40038813 

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