[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232200 
ILZ000-MOZ000-240000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO / WRN IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 261...

VALID 232200Z - 240000Z

ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED E OF WW 261.

MASS FIELDS ARE LESS THAN OPTIMAL AT THE MOMENT AS LOW TO THE NORTH
FILLS WITH TIME AND PRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION DESPITE DIURNAL FALL TIME OF DAY.

NONETHELESS...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY STRONG AND WIND SHEAR
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD INTO IL.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS OVER W-CENTRAL IL...WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED MORE AND PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING.  AREA
VWPS STILL EXHIBIT 150-250 0-1 KM SRH...MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OVER CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL IL WHICH MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CAPE.

..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

41019064 41178861 40348852 39348880 38508935 37939022
37599078 37889256 38419276 39189176 40459108 

WWWW