[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232009 
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-232215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232009Z - 232215Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 21Z.  THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTERED OVER SERN MT.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS PRESENCE OF SMALL SCALE LOW WITH CU MOVING IN A CYCLONIC
PATTERN.  DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S F.

STORMS ARE ALREADY FORMING ALONG COLD FRONT JUST E OF BILLINGS. 
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS BECOMING MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG.

A CONTINUATION OF STRONG HEATING AND APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER
VORTICITY MAX WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE LARGE HAIL TO FORM. 
WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM
STRUCTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW BENEATH
STRONG MID LEVEL WESTERLIES. LOCALLY LOW LCLS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
CLOUD SHIELD / DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OVER SERN MT AND NWRN SD.

..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

43530270 43600334 43890432 44490543 44410671 45010706
45480711 46480728 46340544 45010202 44160175 

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