[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231725 
ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-231900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0843
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO NERN MO...WRN IL...ERN IA...SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231725Z - 231900Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-20Z FROM
NERN MO / ERN IA / WRN IL.  A TORNADO WATCH WILL BECOME NECESSARY
SOON.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALSO
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR OVER CENTRAL AND WRN MO.  THIS
AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 - 2500
J/KG.

CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED INSOLATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT A
CONTINUATION OF WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SW...COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT AND COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE CAP IS BREACHED.

ALTHOUGH LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM IS PRESENT...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE SUCH THAT SUPERCELLS WILL RESULT...WHETHER IN A BROKEN
LINE OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT FORECAST LI VALUES OF -10
TO -12 WILL ALOW FOR VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL ACCELERATION WITHIN
SUPERCELLS. SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND E
OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE 1 KM SRH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
MAXIMIZED FROM 200-300 M2/S2.  THIS AREA...FROM NERN MO INTO W
CENTRAL IL...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES.  IN ADDITION...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ANYWHERE
STORMS FORM.

..JEWELL.. 05/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...EAX...

38738995 38059152 37549350 38089404 38599358 39209291
40159220 41279172 42559145 42909046 42858890 41378893 

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