[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 231445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231445 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-231645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...NRN/CENTRAL IN...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 231445Z - 231645Z

WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER ERN IL.  THIS IS
OCCURRING S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN LAKE MI
THROUGH THE SRN THIRD OF LOWER MI.  AIR MASS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MUCAPE AROUND
2500 J/KG.  PLENTY OF HEATING HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE TO INDICATE
THAT THERE IS LITTLE/NO CAPPING INVERSION INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LATEST
RUC MODEL SHOWS THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE BETWEEN
18-21Z...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...IT WILL BE SOONER ACROSS
THE AREA.  LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SHEAR PROFILES WILL
INCREASE AS EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET OF 60 KT AND 70 KT
RESPECTIVELY MOVES INTO AREA.  THUS...THREAT MAY BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS INITIALLY...BUT INCREASE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

39798752 40438752 41108753 41408749 41748698 42248632
42588496 42498360 42168290 41738339 41358344 40688357
40288425 40138481 39968588 39878691 

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