[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 230930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230930 
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-231030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0840
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0430 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO/CENTRAL-NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 257...258...

VALID 230930Z - 231030Z

BOW ECHO STRUCTURES/LINE SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD WITH
DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED FROM SRN WI SWD ACROSS NRN-CENTRAL IL INTO
NERN MO THROUGH 11Z.  PRIMARILY ELEVATED HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
THREATS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN
MO.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE TWO EARLIER BOW ECHOES HAVE EVOLVED INTO
BOWING/LINE SEGMENTS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM SRN WI
SSWWD ACROSS FAR ERN IA TO NERN MO AT 09Z.  THE NRN EXTENT OF THESE
STORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL IA AND NWD IS MOVING TO THE ENE AT 45 KT...
WHILE THE REST OF THE STORMS ARE MOVING GENERALLY EWD AT 35-40 KT. 
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN WI INTO
NRN-CENTRAL IL HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUPPORTING AN EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOWING
SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

FARTHER WEST...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /FROM THE BOW ECHO NOW MOVING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL/NERN MO/ HAS MOVED SWD ACROSS NRN MO AND
EXTENDS FROM COOPER TO PLATTE COUNTIES OVER THE NWRN PORTION OF MO. 
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW WAA THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NEWD AS 60 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADVECT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS INTO THIS ACTIVITY.  GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 05/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...EAX...

39569473 40229333 40249191 40599159 41969093 42329088
42989010 42998747 40578748 39559069 39099205 38489442